Introducing a machine learning algorithm for delirium prediction—the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project (SURGE-Ahead)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Post-operative delirium (POD) is a common complication in older patients, with an incidence of 14-56%. To implement preventative procedures, it is necessary to identify patients at risk for POD. In the present study, we aimed to develop a machine learning (ML) model for POD prediction in older patients, in close cooperation with the PAWEL (patient safety, cost-effectiveness and quality of life in elective surgery) project. METHODS: The model was trained on the PAWEL study's dataset of 878 patients (no intervention, age ≥ 70, 209 with POD). Presence of POD was determined by the Confusion Assessment Method and a chart review. We selected 15 features based on domain knowledge, ethical considerations and a recursive feature elimination. A logistic regression and a linear support vector machine (SVM) were trained, and evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). RESULTS: The selected features were American Society of Anesthesiologists score, multimorbidity, cut-to-suture time, estimated glomerular filtration rate, polypharmacy, use of cardio-pulmonary bypass, the Montreal cognitive assessment subscores 'memory', 'orientation' and 'verbal fluency', pre-existing dementia, clinical frailty scale, age, recent falls, post-operative isolation and pre-operative benzodiazepines. The linear SVM performed best, with an ROC area under the curve of 0.82 [95% CI 0.78-0.85] in the training set, 0.81 [95% CI 0.71-0.88] in the test set and 0.76 [95% CI 0.71-0.79] in a cross-centre validation. CONCLUSION: We present a clinically useful and explainable ML model for POD prediction. The model will be deployed in the Supporting SURgery with GEriatric Co-Management and AI project.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".