#2617 Impact of CKD screening in high‑risk populations and guideline-directed therapy on RRT, CV events, and mortality in Europe: an IMPACT CKD analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background and Aims Despite the rising and substantial burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD), there is a lack of recognition of CKD as a health priority in Europe. This contributes to underdiagnosis of CKD despite the potential for early detection and effective intervention to delay progression to late-stages (associated with costly and resource-intensive renal replacement therapy [RRT; i.e., dialysis and transplantation]). Further, diagnosed patients are undertreated when compared to current and upcoming CKD guidelines, leading to increased risk for progression to RRT and cardiovascular (CV) or other events. Early detection and intervention in high-risk populations, such as those with diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) have shown cost-effectiveness; however, the broader implications of these strategies on CKD progression and clinical outcomes in a European context remains underexplored. Our study aims to illustrate the clinical benefit of targeted screening followed by an optimal compliance to guideline-directed treatment use to provide insight into potential CKD policies across Europe. Method Four country populations (Germany, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom [UK]) were simulated for 10-years (baseline: 2022; simulated years: 2023-2032) using the validated IMPACT CKD model to compare two scenarios: targeted screening for people with DM and/or HTN followed by 90% compliance to guideline-directed therapy versus current practice (i.e., underdiagnosis without screening and low treatment rates). Annual targeted screening was modelled using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) testing. Initiation of therapies for people with diagnosed CKD was based on Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines. A 90% compliance to guideline-directed therapies was assumed to approximate maximum clinical benefit. Current practice was modelled based on the observed diagnosed rate without screening and the observed treatment rate in each country. The incremental population initiated on recommended therapies were modelled to experience a multiplicative treatment effect on GFR decline, CV events, and acute kidney injury (AKI) events. The model projected CKD and RRT prevalence, incidence of CV and AKI events with results shown for year 10 (2032), as well as cumulative all-cause mortality over the simulated 10-years. Results Results compare the high-risk population screening followed by guideline-directed treatment scenario to continuation of current practices for the four countries (Fig. 1). The identification of undiagnosed CKD, as well as lower rates of progression due to guideline-directed treatment was associated with a small rise in the number of total CKD patients, with increases in stage 1-2 by 3.5% to 5.0%, and stage 3-5 by 0.2% to 1.2%. There was a reduction in the number of undiagnosed CKD stage 1-2 patients by 49.2% to 71.6%, and stage 3-5 by 60.2% to 69.8%. The largest reductions were predicted for CV events (44.6% to 49.1%) followed by dialysis (22.6% to 41.9%). The strategy resulted in a decrease in cumulative 10-year all-cause mortality between 4.5% to 9.1% in CKD patients. Conclusion The study predicted significant clinical benefits from targeted CKD screening followed by guideline-directed interventions across all four European countries. Notably, this approach was forecasted to reduce undiagnosed CKD cases, dialysis, CV events, and mortality. These findings underscore the potential of acting earlier on CKD to mitigate the future CKD burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".