Continued Instability in Manitoba: Deficits, Taxes, Elections, and Resetting Government
Bibliographic record
Abstract
n last year's edition of the Manitoba Law Journal: Underneath the Golden Boy, I argued that the veneer of political and economic stability was beginning to decay in Manitoba.In this edition, this theme is further explored and argues that in the fallout of the Provincial Sales Tax (PST) increase in Fall 2013, Manitoba has endured more political and economic instability.The time frame for this analysis is June 2013 to July 2014.We ended last year's discussion with an overview of the public policy landscape and the surprise budgetary announcement of a one percent increase to the province sales tax (PST) for the next ten years.This increase, which amounts to approximately $280 million annually or close to $3 billion over the ten years, is earmarked for infrastructure programs.Given the lack of popularity that taxes enjoy with the electorate (see Himelfarb and Himelfarb 2013), it is perhaps not surprising that this year's edition begins with a discussion of this public policy decision.The paper begins with an overview of the PST controversy and then explores how Premier Selinger responded to this controversy vis-à-vis a change in political and bureaucratic leadership.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.017 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.009 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".