Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this article we use an approach we term “speculative reading” to explore gaps in Sylvia Beach’s lending library records and the *Shakespeare and Company Project* datasets. We recast the problem of missing data as an opportunity and use a combination of time series forecasting, evolutionary models, and recommendation systems to estimate the extent of missing information and speculatively fill in some gaps. We conclude that the datasets include ninety-three percent of membership activity, ninety-six percent of members, and sixty-four percent to seventy-six percent of the books despite only including twenty-six percent of the borrowing activity. We then treat Ernest Hemingway as a test case for speculative reading: based on Hemingway’s known borrowing and all documented borrowing activity, we generate a list of books he might have borrowed during the years his borrowing is not documented; we then verify and interpret our list against the substantial scholarly record of the books he read and owned.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.030 | 0.209 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".