Conceptualising an Urban Digital Twin Framework for Simulating the Impact of Household Consumption Choices on the Carbon Footprint of Urban Neighborhoods
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. This paper presents a concept and first glimpse at the development of an urban digital twin framework to estimate and forecast the carbon footprints of urban neighbourhoods, with a focus on household consumption choices, specifically in buildings, food, and transportation sectors, as key emission contributors. Despite constituting nearly three-quarters of global carbon emissions, the influence of household consumption choices on a region’s carbon footprint is often neglected. While assessments at a regional or city scale may prove too broad for targeted mitigation strategies, estimating carbon emissions at the neighbourhood scale can foster sustainable and resilient urban areas. However, challenges arise in estimating emissions at this scale due to the availability of aggregated data, insufficient cross-sectoral data integration, and a lack of practical visualisation tools, causing policymakers to overlook the impact of household choices on neighbourhood carbon footprints. Therefore, the present article provides insights into the ongoing early-stage development of using urban digital twins to model, simulate, analyse, and visualise the impact of household consumption choices on neighbourhood-scale consumption-based carbon emissions. By exploring ”what-if” scenarios, this research also seeks to forecast emission profiles based on how household consumption choices influence a neighbourhood’s carbon emissions under future climatic and demographic conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".