Predicting Lung Cancer Survival to the Future: Population-Based Cancer Survival Modeling Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related mortality globally, with late diagnoses often resulting in poor prognosis. In response, the Lung Ambition Alliance aims to double the 5-year survival rate by 2025. OBJECTIVE: Using the Taiwan Cancer Registry, this study uses the survivorship-period-cohort model to assess the feasibility of achieving this goal by predicting future survival rates of patients with lung cancer in Taiwan. METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed data from 205,104 patients with lung cancer registered between 1997 and 2018. Survival rates were calculated using the survivorship-period-cohort model, focusing on 1-year interval survival rates and extrapolating to predict 5-year outcomes for diagnoses up to 2020, as viewed from 2025. Model validation involved comparing predicted rates with actual data using symmetric mean absolute percentage error. RESULTS: The study identified notable improvements in survival rates beginning in 2004, with the predicted 5-year survival rate for 2020 reaching 38.7%, marking a considerable increase from the most recent available data of 23.8% for patients diagnosed in 2013. Subgroup analysis revealed varied survival improvements across different demographics and histological types. Predictions based on current trends indicate that achieving the Lung Ambition Alliance's goal could be within reach. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis demonstrates notable improvements in lung cancer survival rates in Taiwan, driven by the adoption of low-dose computed tomography screening, alongside advances in diagnostic technologies and treatment strategies. While the ambitious target set by the Lung Ambition Alliance appears achievable, ongoing advancements in medical technology and health policies will be crucial. The study underscores the potential impact of continued enhancements in lung cancer management and the importance of strategic health interventions to further improve survival outcomes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".