Evaluation of the support vector regression (SVR) and the random forest (RF) models accuracy for streamflow prediction under a data-scarce basin in Morocco
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Streamflow prediction is a key variable for water resources management. It becomes more important in semi-arid regions such as the Tensift river basin in Morocco, where water resources are facing a severe drought and the demand is continuously increasing. The present analysis focuses on evaluating Machine Learning techniques, namely support vector regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) against the multiple linear regression (MLR) for daily streamflow forecasting in the mountainous sub-basin of Rheraya between 2003 and 2016. The results show that SVR performed best, followed by RF and MLR. In measurable terms and regarding mean performance, SVR exhibited the higher Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency score (NSE = 0.59) and a lower root mean squared error (RMSE = 1.18 $$\text {m}^3\,\text {s}^{-1}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mtext>m</mml:mtext><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mspace/><mml:msup><mml:mtext>s</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math> ) compared to RF (NSE = 0.53, RMSE = 1.18 $$\text {m}^3\,\text {s}^{-1}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mtext>m</mml:mtext><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mspace/><mml:msup><mml:mtext>s</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math> ) and MLR (NSE = 0.54, RMSE = 1.01 $$\text {m}^3\,\text {s}^{-1}$$ <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mtext>m</mml:mtext><mml:mn>3</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mspace/><mml:msup><mml:mtext>s</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn>1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math> ). Furthermore,the available time series was too short to properly capture the full range of streamflow variability, which reduced the prediction performance outside of the calibration conditions. These findings suggest that ML algorithms, particularly SVR, can provide accurate streamflow estimation useful for water resources management when trained on a representative period. The results highlight the capacity of Machine Learning algorithms, specifically SVR, to augment streamflow prediction for enhanced water resource management in arid regions.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it