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Record W4399296555 · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4453981/v1

Forecasting of G7 Countries' Total Energy Production: A Rigorous Exploration with Artificial Neural Networks and Multiple Linear Regression

2024· preprint· en· W4399296555 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Gökhan BAYIR, Faruk KILIÇ, Faik Ümit Diri, Hande ERKAYMAZ

Bibliographic record

VenueResearch Square · 2024
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMarket Dynamics and Volatility
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsArtificial neural networkLinear regressionProduction (economics)RegressionEnergy (signal processing)Computer scienceEconometricsArtificial intelligenceMathematicsStatisticsMachine learningEconomicsMicroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract The G7 countries, consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have important collaborations in energy production to achieve energy security. One of the main systems of Artificial intelligence's, artificial neural networks (ANN), is crucial to this area of study, comparatively using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) comparatively. ANN and MLR are feasible to use across the G7 countries' total energy production numbers, and these numbers were determined using ANN and MLR forecasting techniques. The data included the years 1990–2020, focusing on GDP intensity, refined oil product production, electricity production, and renewable energy proportion. In ANN modeling, the best regression results at 10*10 have been obtained with two hidden layers. All regression values were 0.99947, with the training regression value being 0.99912, the validation regression value being 0.99997, and the test regression value being 0.99997. The results showed high accuracy, with regression scores exceeding 99% and smaller prediction error values. A paired sample t test has been applied to see whether the distinction between the average values is significant or not. The results of the test between the actual and predicted values (p = 0.7462 > 0.05) revealed that the forecasted values have been quite close to the actual values. Total energy production Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) parameters have been calculated as 4.364, 34.072, 5.837, and 0.162, respectively. The research proved that ANNs are effective in forecasting total energy output. And, with MLR, error values for MAD, MSE, RMSE, and MAPE were also found to be 5.364, 34.352, 5.861, and 1.609, respectively, using MLR modeling. By 2035, the G7 nations are expected to produce 50,652.746 Mtoe of energy collectively. The research proved that ANNs are effective in forecasting total energy output.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.004
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.007
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.018
Threshold uncertainty score0.035

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0040.007
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.103
GPT teacher head0.311
Teacher spread0.208 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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