Long‐term risk with stochastic interest rates
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In constant‐rate markets, the average stochastic discount factor growth rate coincides with the instantaneous rate. When interest rates are stochastic, this average growth rate is given by the long‐term yield of zero‐coupon bonds, which cannot serve as instantaneous discount rate. We show how to reconcile the stochastic discount factor growth with the instantaneous relations between returns and rates in stochastic‐rate markets. We factorize no‐arbitrage prices and isolate a rate adjustment that captures the short‐term variability of rates. The rate‐adjusted stochastic discount factor features the same long‐term growth as the stochastic discount factor in the market but has no transient component in its Hansen–Scheinkman decomposition, capturing the long‐term interest rate risk. Moreover, we show how the rate adjustment can be used for managing the interest rate risk related to fixed‐income derivatives and life insurances.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it