Optimal rainfall threshold for monsoon rice production in India varies across space and time
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Climate change affects Indian agriculture, which depends heavily on the spatiotemporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. Despite the nonlinear relationship between crop yield and rainfall, little is known about the optimal rainfall threshold, particularly for monsoon rice. Here, we investigate the responses of rice yield to monsoon rainfall in India by analyzing historical rice production statistics and climate data from 1990 to 2017. Results show that excessive and deficit rainfall reduces rice yield by 33.7% and 19%, respectively. The overall optimal rainfall threshold nationwide is 1621 ± 34 mm beyond which rice yield declines by 6.4 kg per hectare per 100 mm of rainfall, while the identifiable thresholds vary spatially across 14 states. The temporal variations in rice yield are influenced by rainfall anomalies featured by El Niño-Southern Oscillation events.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it