Trends in Outcomes After Upfront Autologous Transplant for Multiple Myeloma Over Three Decades
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Upfront autologous stem cell transplantation (auto-SCT) remains standard of care for eligible patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM), although recently its role has been questioned. The aim of the study was to evaluate trends in patient characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of NDMM who underwent upfront auto-SCT over three decades. We conducted a single-center retrospective analysis of patients with NDMM who underwent upfront auto-SCT at MD Anderson Cancer Center between 1988 to 2021. Primary end points were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Patients were grouped by the year of auto-SCT: 1988-2000 (n = 249), 2001-2005 (n = 373), 2006-2010 (n = 568), 2011-2015 (n = 815) and 2016-2021 (n = 1036). High-risk cytogenetic abnormalities were defined as del (17p), t (4;14), t (14;16), and 1q21 gain or amplification by fluorescence in situ hybridization. We included 3041 MM patients in the analysis. Median age at auto-SCT increased from 52 years (1988-2000) to 62 years (2016-2021), as did the incidence of high-risk cytogenetics from 15% to 40% (P < .001). Comorbidity burden, as measured by a Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Specific Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) of >3, increased from 17% (1988-2000) to 28% (2016-2021) (P < .001). Induction regimens evolved from predominantly chemotherapy to immunomodulatory drug (IMiD) and proteasome inhibitor (PI) based regimens, with 74% of patients receiving IMiD-PI triplets in 2016-2021 (39% bortezomib, lenalidomide and dexamethasone (VRD) and 35% carfilzomib, lenalidomide and dexamethasone [KRD]). Response rates prior to auto-SCT steadily increased, with 4% and 10% achieving a ≥CR and ≥VGPR compared to 19% and 65% between 1988-2000 and 2016-2021, respectively. Day 100 response rates post auto-SCT improved from 24% and 49% achieving ≥CR and ≥VGPR between 1988-2000 to 41% and 81% between 2016-2021, respectively. Median PFS improved from 22.3 months between 1988-2000 to 58.6 months between 2016-2021 (HR 0.42, P < .001). Among patients with high-risk cytogenetics, median PFS increased from 13.7 months to 36.8 months (HR 0.32, P < .001). Patients aged ≥65 years also had an improvement in median PFS from 33.6 months between 2001 and 2005 to 52.8 months between 2016-2021 (HR 0.56, P = .001). Median OS improved from 55.1 months between 1988-2000 to not reached (HR 0.41, P < .001). Patients with high-risk cytogenetics had an improvement in median OS from 32.9 months to 66.5 months between 2016-2021 (HR 0.39, P < .001). Day 100 non-relapse mortality from 2001 onwards was ≤1%. Age-adjust rates of second primary malignancies were similar in patients transplanted in different time periods. Despite increasing patient age and comorbidity burden, this large real-world study demonstrated significant improvements in the depth of response and survival outcomes in patients with NDMM undergoing upfront auto-SCT over the past three decades, including those with high-risk disease.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".