Genomic Determinants Associated with Modes of Progression and Patterns of Failure in Metachronous Oligometastatic Castration-sensitive Prostate Cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background and objectiveOligometastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (omCSPC) represents an early state in the progression of metastatic disease for which patients experience better outcomes in comparison to those with higher disease burden. Despite the generally more indolent nature, there is still much heterogeneity, with some patients experiencing a more aggressive clinical course unexplained by clinical features alone. Our aim was to investigate correlation of tumor genomics with the mode of progression (MOP) and pattern of failure (POF) following first treatment (metastasis-directed and/or systemic therapy) for omCSPC.MethodsWe performed an international multi-institutional retrospective study of men treated for metachronous omCSPC who underwent tumor next-generation sequencing with at least 1 yr of follow-up after their first treatment. Descriptive MOP and POF results are reported with respect to the presence of genomic alterations in pathways of interest. MOP was defined as class I, long-term control (LTC; no radiographic progression at last follow-up), class II, oligoprogression (1–3 lesions), or class III, polyprogression (≥4 lesions). POF included the location of lesions at first failure. Genomic pathways of interest included TP53, ATM, RB1, BRCA1/2, SPOP, and WNT (APC, CTNNB1, RNF43). Genomic associations with MOP/POF were compared using χ2 tests. Exploratory analyses revealed that the COSMIC mutational signature and differential gene expression were also correlated with MOP/POF. Overall survival (OS) was calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method from the time of first failure.Key findings and clinical implicationsWe included 267 patients in our analysis; the majority had either one (47%) or two (30%) metastatic lesions at oligometastasis. The 3-yr OS rate was significantly associated with MOP (71% for polyprogression vs 91% for oligoprogression; p = 0.005). TP53 mutation was associated with a significantly lower LTC rate (27.6% vs 42.3%; p = 0.04) and RB1 mutation was associated with a high rate of polyprogression (50% vs 19.9%; p = 0.022). Regarding POF, bone failure was significantly more common with tumors harboring TP53 mutations (44.8% vs25.9%; p = 0.005) and less common with SPOP mutations (7.1% vs 31.4%; p = 0.007). Visceral failure was more common with tumors harboring either WNT pathway mutations (17.2% vs 6.8%, p = 0.05) or SPOP mutations (17.9% vs 6.3%; p = 0.04). Finally, visceral and bone failures were associated with distinct gene-expression profiles.Conclusions and clinical implicationsTumor genomics provides novel insight into MOP and POF following treatment for metachronous omCSPC. Patients with TP53 and RB1 mutations have a higher likelihood of progression, and TP53, SPOP, and WNT pathway mutations may have a role in metastatic organotropism.Patient summaryWe evaluated cancer progression after a first treatment for metastatic prostate cancer with up to five metastases. We found that mutations in certain genes were associated with the location and extent of further metastasis in these patients.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".