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Record W4399653158 · doi:10.54097/16htgr41

US Gasoline Prices: Linear Regression Model and ARIMA Model Forecast

2024· article· en· W4399653158 on OpenAlexaff
Xinyu Wang

Bibliographic record

VenueHighlights in Science Engineering and Technology · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicEnergy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Toronto
Fundersnot available
KeywordsGasolineAutoregressive integrated moving averageEconometricsEconomicsConsumption (sociology)Linear regressionCrude oilRegression analysisAgricultural economicsSupply and demandProduct (mathematics)Time seriesStatisticsMathematicsMacroeconomicsEngineeringWaste managementPetroleum engineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The price of gasoline has always been a concern in consumer’s daily lives. As the price increases, consumers spend more on driving. According to the 2022 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the United States contributed more to the growth of the oil and gasoline consumption in 2021. The study focuses on analyzing past US monthly gasoline price changes and forecasting the prices for the next year. The combination of the linear regression model and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is performed to predict the trend and display the forecasted price ranges. The study reveals that there will be an increasing trend for US monthly gasoline prices, starting from $0.964 in August 2023 to $1.108 in July 2024. The lower prices and higher prices from the interval show the same trend of moving upwards. For future research, crude oil demand and supply, and prices are considered as important factors in predicting the gasoline prices because gasoline is a refined product from crude oil.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.480
Threshold uncertainty score0.490

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.010
GPT teacher head0.231
Teacher spread0.221 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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