Ultrasensitive plasma-based monitoring of tumor burden using machine-learning-guided signal enrichment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In solid tumor oncology, circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is poised to transform care through accurate assessment of minimal residual disease (MRD) and therapeutic response monitoring. To overcome the sparsity of ctDNA fragments in low tumor fraction (TF) settings and increase MRD sensitivity, we previously leveraged genome-wide mutational integration through plasma whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Here we now introduce MRD-EDGE, a machine-learning-guided WGS ctDNA single-nucleotide variant (SNV) and copy-number variant (CNV) detection platform designed to increase signal enrichment. MRD-EDGESNV uses deep learning and a ctDNA-specific feature space to increase SNV signal-to-noise enrichment in WGS by ~300× compared to previous WGS error suppression. MRD-EDGECNV also reduces the degree of aneuploidy needed for ultrasensitive CNV detection through WGS from 1 Gb to 200 Mb, vastly expanding its applicability within solid tumors. We harness the improved performance to identify MRD following surgery in multiple cancer types, track changes in TF in response to neoadjuvant immunotherapy in lung cancer and demonstrate ctDNA shedding in precancerous colorectal adenomas. Finally, the radical signal-to-noise enrichment in MRD-EDGESNV enables plasma-only (non-tumor-informed) disease monitoring in advanced melanoma and lung cancer, yielding clinically informative TF monitoring for patients on immune-checkpoint inhibition. Detection of circulating tumor DNA using MRD-EDGE, a machine-learning-guided single-nucleotide variant and copy-number variant detection platform for signal enrichment, enables monitoring of minimal residual disease and immunotherapy response in settings of low tumor burden.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".