A Monte-Carlo based microzonation model for application in seismic hazard studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
During a strong earthquake, the local geological and geotechnical conditions can significantly alter the earthquake shaking in terms of amplitude, frequency content, and duration, a phenomenon often referred to as the site effect. In the past decades, the shear-wave velocity of the top 30 m (Vs30) and the fundamental period of vibration (T0) were established as indicators for the seismic site effects. To improve understanding of subsurface ground conditions and their spatial variation in the Saguenay region, Canada, a Monte-Carlo based approach is proposed for Vs30 and T0 modelling. First, a detailed probabilistic 3D geological model was developed considering three soil types: glacial till and postglacial fine and coarse sediments. The study area was modelled with 3D 75x75x2 m grid cells using sequential indicator simulation assigning probability of occurrence of each of the soil types to each cell. In parallel, a comprehensive Vs database was created based on invasive geotechnical measurements. Interval Vs probability distributions were determined for each soil type at each 2m depth. Monte-Carlo (MC) simulations were conducted considering Vs as the random variable. The resulting probability values were used to create Vs30 and T0 maps and associated uncertainties. These results demonstrate the capacity of the proposed MC approach to incorporate the variability of the subsurface conditions in the seismic hazard assessment process.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".