A Prediction Model for Identifying Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Uptake Among Children in Wuxi, China: Prospective Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Predicting vaccination behaviors accurately could provide insights for health care professionals to develop targeted interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop predictive models for influenza vaccination behavior among children in China. METHODS: We obtained data from a prospective observational study in Wuxi, eastern China. The predicted outcome was individual-level vaccine uptake and covariates included sociodemographics of the child and parent, parental vaccine hesitancy, perceptions of convenience to the clinic, satisfaction with clinic services, and willingness to vaccinate. Bayesian networks, logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), and decision tree classifiers were used to construct prediction models. Various performance metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the different models. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots were used to assess model performance. RESULTS: A total of 2383 participants were included in the study; 83.2% of these children (n=1982) were <5 years old and 6.6% (n=158) had previously received an influenza vaccine. More than half (1356/2383, 56.9%) the parents indicated a willingness to vaccinate their child against influenza. Among the 2383 children, 26.3% (n=627) received influenza vaccination during the 2020-2021 season. Within the training set, the RF model showed the best performance across all metrics. In the validation set, the logistic regression model and NB model had the highest AUC values; the SVM model had the highest precision; the NB model had the highest recall; and the logistic regression model had the highest accuracy, F1 score, and Cohen κ value. The LASSO and logistic regression models were well-calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: The developed prediction model can be used to quantify the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination for children in China. The stepwise logistic regression model may be better suited for prediction purposes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".