COVID-19 in correctional facilities in Ontario, Canada: a retrospective epidemiological analysis from 15 January 2020 to 31 December 2022
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose The physical environment of correctional facilities promote infectious disease transmission and outbreaks. The purpose of this study is to compare the COVID-19 burden between the correctional facility (incarcerated individuals and staff members) and non-correctional facility population in Ontario during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach All individuals in Ontario with a laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 between 15 January 2020 and 31 December 2022 and entered into the provincial COVID-19 data were included. Cases were classified as a correctional facility case (living or working in a correctional facility) or a non-correctional facility case. COVID-19 vaccination status was obtained from the provincial COVID-19 vaccine registry. Statistics Canada census data were used to calculate COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates for incarcerated cases and the non-correctional facility population. Findings Between 15 January 2020 and 31 December 2022, there were 1,550,045 COVID-19 cases in Ontario of which 8,292 (0.53%) cases were reported in correctional (63.8% amongst incarcerated individuals, 18.6% amongst staff and 17.7% amongst an unknown classification) and 1,541,753 (99.47%) were non-correctional facility cases. Most cases in correctional facilities were men (83.8%) and aged 20–59 years (93.1%). COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates were generally higher among incarcerated individuals compared to the non-correctional facility population throughout the study period. COVID-19 incidence peaked in January 2022 for both the correctional facility population (21,543.8 per 100,000 population) and the non-correctional facility population (1915.1 per 100,000 population). The rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations peaked for the correctional facility population aged 20–59 in March 2021 (70.7 per 100,000 population) and in April 2021 for the non-correctional facility population aged 20–59 (19.8 per 100,000 population). A greater percentage of incarcerated individuals (73.0%) were unvaccinated at time of their COVID-19 diagnosis compared to the non-correctional facility population (49.3%). Deaths amongst correctional facility cases were rare (0.1%, 6 / 8,292) compared to 1.0% of non-correctional facility cases (n = 15,787 / 1,541,753). Originality/value During the COVID-19 pandemic, individuals incarcerated in correctional facilities in Ontario had higher COVID-19 incidence and hospitalization rates compared to the non-correctional facility population. These results support prioritizing incarcerated individuals for public health interventions to mitigate COVID-19 impacts in correctional facilities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".