Birth-cohort patterns of e-cigarette and other tobacco use among adolescents in the US
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: E-cigarette use has increased considerably among US adolescents. While many studies have described cross-sectional prevalence trends of youth e-cigarette use, less is known about cohort or generational initiation and use patterns. METHODS: We used data from the US National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) from 2014 to 2022 and age-period-cohort models to analyze age-specific patterns of e-cigarette use initiation and prevalence by cohort and calendar. For comparison, we also examined initiation and prevalence for cigarettes, cigars, and smokeless tobacco, using NYTS data from 1999 to 2022. RESULTS: Age-specific e-cigarette initiation and prevalence varied considerably by calendar year and birth cohort. There was a rapid increase in e-cigarette initiation and prevalence starting with the 1995 birth cohort, peaking with the 2005 birth cohort, and showing signs of decline with more recent cohorts. In contrast, there were substantial continuous reductions in cigarette, cigar, and smokeless use initiation and prevalence by birth cohort. While the reductions in cigarette smoking started with the 1980s birth cohorts, cigar and smokeless initiation and prevalence did not decrease until the 1990-1995 cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Despite their recent emergence, e-cigarette use has varied considerably across US adolescent cohorts. After early increases, e-cigarette use and initiation peaked with the 2005 birth cohort. These patterns are in contrast with the continuous decreases by cohort in cigarette, cigar, and smokeless use and initiation. As the tobacco product landscape continues to evolve, it will be essential to monitor patterns of use of adolescent and young adult cohorts as they age into adulthood.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".