Asymmetric Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate Shocks on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence From Symmetric and Asymmetric Panel ARDL-PMG Model
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of the real effective exchange rate on economic growth in 11 African countries from 1990 to 2022 using linear and nonlinear panel ARDL estimators. The linear panel ARDL-PMG results indicate that broad money supply and general government consumption positively impact economic growth in the short and long term, while the real effective exchange rate has an insignificant effect. The negative and statistically significant error correction term (ECTt-1) suggests a long-term relationship between the variables. Similarly, the nonlinear panel ARDL-PMG results show that broad money supply and general government consumption have positive and significant effects on economic growth in both the short and long term. Negative shocks in the real effective exchange rate hinder economic growth in the short and long term, while positive shocks do not significantly affect economic growth. The paper discusses the policy implications of these findings.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it