Third Time’s the Charm: The Youth Vote and Prabowo’s Victory in the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
After previous failed attempts, Prabowo Subianto won the 2024 Indonesian presidential election. In this article, we outline the events that unfolded in the run-up to the election before analyzing the drivers of Indonesian voting behaviour based on original survey data. Our analyses underscore the importance of transformations in the generational composition of the Indonesian electorate: younger voters, especially those born after the return of democracy, are fuelling its erosion with their support of a former general accused of human rights abuses. In addition to benefitting from the support of incumbent President Joko Widodo, we argue that Prabowo's victory was underpinned by a sophisticated social media campaign, the waning memory of Indonesia's authoritarian past, and a young populace anxious about their economic prospects.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it