The emerging international trade in hydrogen: Environmental policies, innovation, and trade dynamics
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Hydrogen produced from renewable energy and other carbon-neutral sources has the potential of becoming an important medium for storing and transporting energy, partially taking on the role that fossil fuels play to date. We develop a novel theoretical and empirical model of sequential trade based on long-term contracts with one or more fixed-capacity projects entering each period in a modified Nash-Cournot competition. We simulate the emerging international trade in hydrogen using calibrated demand, supply, transportation, and policy data, exploring a set of scenarios to determine which factors have significant influence—in particular environmental, innovation, and trade policies. Our findings suggest that hydrogen trade exhibits significant price dispersion and two-way trade as vintages of contracts overlap in a market defined by endogenous innovation and policy interventions. Trade costs and the mode of transportation (pipelines or ammonia conversion, possibly others) play a pivotal role and influence the relative share of hydrogen production types (green, blue, or turquoise). Trade policies emerge as a more essential determinant of hydrogen trade than carbon and innovation policies.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it