COVID-19 severity and risk of SARS-CoV-2-associated asthma exacerbation by time since booster vaccination: a longitudinal analysis of data from the COVIDENCE UK study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background In several countries, COVID-19 booster vaccinations are offered annually to priority groups, but many people have not been vaccinated in over a year. We aimed to assess the association between time since booster vaccination and characteristics of breakthrough infection. We also assessed whether incident COVID-19 continued to associate with asthma exacerbations in boosted individuals, and whether risk of COVID-19-associated exacerbation was affected by time since vaccination. Methods COVIDENCE UK is a prospective, longitudinal, population-based study of COVID-19. We included adult participants who had received ≥1 booster vaccination. Time since vaccination was binarised at 6 months or 12 months according to vaccine eligibility subgroup. We used logistic, Cox, and linear regression to obtain adjusted estimates for the association between time since vaccination and breakthrough infection severity, symptom duration, and acute changes to health-related quality of life (measured by the EQ-5D-3L Index). We then assessed the association of incident COVID-19 with asthma exacerbations using multilevel mixed models, by time since vaccination. Results 7391 boosted participants reported a breakthrough infection. Across all eligibility subgroups, greater time since vaccination associated with increased odds of infection requiring bedrest ( vs milder symptoms), with the highest odds for adults aged 65–75 years (1.83 [95% CI 1.51–2.23] when vaccinated >6 months vs ≤6 months prior). However, we observed little evidence of association between time since vaccination and symptom duration. Vaccination >12 months prior ( vs ≤12 months) was associated with a small decrease in EQ-5D-3L Index among participants younger than 65 years (-0.03 points [-0.04 to -0.01]). Among 2100 participants with asthma, incident COVID-19 associated with increased risk of asthma exacerbation, both ≤12 months after vaccination (OR 5.31 [4.36–6.48]) and later (6.06 [3.23–11.38]), with a greater difference in point estimates when specifically considering severe asthma exacerbations (6.82 [4.88–9.54] for ≤12 months vs 10.06 [3.90–25.92] for >12 months). Conclusion Longer time since booster vaccination consistently associates with more severe breakthrough infections, and may potentially increase risk of severe asthma exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring those currently eligible receive their booster vaccinations, and the need for research on further vaccinations in people with asthma no longer eligible for boosters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".