Application of Quantum Neural Network for Solar Irradiance Forecasting: A Case Study Using the Folsom Dataset, California
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Quantum machine learning applications have become viable with the recent advancements in quantum computing. Merging ML with the power of quantum computing holds great potential for data-driven decision-making, as well as the development of more powerful models capable of handling more complex datasets with faster processing time. This area offers potential for improving the accuracy of real-time forecasting renewable energy production. However, the literature on this topic is sparse. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study aims to design, implement, and evaluate the performance of a quantum neural network forecast model for solar irradiance up to 3-hours ahead. The proposed model was compared with Support Vector Regression, Group Method of Data Handling, and Extreme Gradient Boost classical models. Using the best quantum neural network configuration found, the proposed framework could provide competitive results when compared to its competitors, considering forecasting intervals of 5- to 120-minutes ahead, where it was the fourth best-performing paradigm. For 3-hours ahead predictions, the QNN was able to overcome its clas-sical counterparts, but the XGBoost. This fact can be an indication that the quantum model may identify and retrieve relevant spatiotemporal information from the input dataset in such a manner not attainable by the current classical approaches.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".