Benchmarking computational variant effect predictors by their ability to infer human traits
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Computational variant effect predictors offer a scalable and increasingly reliable means of interpreting human genetic variation, but concerns of circularity and bias have limited previous methods for evaluating and comparing predictors. Population-level cohorts of genotyped and phenotyped participants that have not been used in predictor training can facilitate an unbiased benchmarking of available methods. Using a curated set of human gene-trait associations with a reported rare-variant burden association, we evaluate the correlations of 24 computational variant effect predictors with associated human traits in the UK Biobank and All of Us cohorts. RESULTS: AlphaMissense outperformed all other predictors in inferring human traits based on rare missense variants in UK Biobank and All of Us participants. The overall rankings of computational variant effect predictors in these two cohorts showed a significant positive correlation. CONCLUSION: We describe a method to assess computational variant effect predictors that sidesteps the limitations of previous evaluations. This approach is generalizable to future predictors and could continue to inform predictor choice for personal and clinical genetics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.048 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".