Modeling Mountain Pine Beetle Abundance and Distribution in a Changing Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The range of mountain pine beetle ( Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is primarily constrained by climate, with winter temperatures playing a crucial role. Climate change is likely to increase the number of warm days and decrease cold days compared to historical norms, making higher latitudes more suitable habitats. In this work, we explore the potential impacts of environmental covariates on outbreaks of mountain pine beetle under climate change in a selected lodgepole pine area in Alberta. We employ a hierarchical model to examine mountain pine beetle dynamics approaching the end of the century. Our analysis assesses the impact of various climatic covariates and estimates the probability and expected number of infestations across different climate change scenarios. Our results from the hierarchical model underscore the critical role of degree days and overwinter survival probability, displaying an overall trend towards a higher probability and a greater number of outbreaks with increasing temperature. Our results indicate that Alberta is likely to experience widespread infestations in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".