Analyzing the sensitivity of a blowing snow model (SnowPappus) to precipitation forcing, blowing snow, and spatial resolution
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Accurate snow cover modeling is a high-stakes issue for mountain regions. Alpine snow evolution and spatial variability result from a multitude of complex processes including interactions between wind and snow. The SnowPappus blowing snow model was designed to add blowing snow modeling capabilities to the SURFEX/Crocus simulation system for applications across large spatial and temporal extents. This paper presents the first spatialized evaluation of this simulation system over a 902 km2 domain in the French Alps. Here we compare snow cover simulations to the spatial distribution of snow height obtained from Pléiades satellites stereo imagery and to snow melt-out dates from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 time series over three snow seasons. We analyzed the sensitivity of the simulations to three different precipitation datasets and two horizontal resolutions. The evaluations are presented as a function of elevation and landform types. The results show that the SnowPappus model forced with high-resolution wind fields enhances the snow cover spatial variability at high elevations allowing a better agreement between observed and simulated spatial distributions above 2500 m and near peaks and ridges. Model improvements are not obvious at low to medium altitudes where precipitation errors are the prevailing uncertainty. Our study illustrates the necessity to consider error contributions from blowing snow, precipitation forcings, and unresolved subgrid variability for robust evaluations of spatialized snow simulations. Despite the significant effect of the unresolved spatial scales of snow transport, 250 m horizontal-resolution snow simulations using SnowPappus are found to be a promising avenue for large-scale modeling of alpine snowpacks.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".