International tourism and trade in Mexico: A Granger causality test (2012- 2020)
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Limited information is available on the factors that impact the flow of international tourists to Mexico, a top global tourist destination in the 21st century. Our study utilizes the Granger causality test in vector autoregressive (VAR) models to examine the potential causal relationship between international trade and international tourism flows with Mexico’s key travel partners from 2012 to 2020. Analysis of data from trade balance and foreign tourist visits to Mexico reveals a Granger causality linking trade balance growth to increased international tourist arrivals from the United States, Argentina, and Italy. Conversely, in the case of Canada, growth in tourist visits influences the trade balance between the two countries. No significant Granger-causality was found for the United Kingdom, Colombia, Spain, Brazil, France, and Germany. These results have important implications for the development of public tourism policies focused on addressing challenges related to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it