Joint Statistical Inference for the Area under the ROC Curve and Youden Index under a Density Ratio Model
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a valuable statistical tool in medical research. It assesses a biomarker’s ability to distinguish between diseased and healthy individuals. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and the Youden index (J) are common summary indices used to evaluate a biomarker’s diagnostic accuracy. Simultaneously examining AUC and J offers a more comprehensive understanding of the ROC curve’s characteristics. In this paper, we utilize a semiparametric density ratio model to link the distributions of a biomarker for healthy and diseased individuals. Under this model, we establish the joint asymptotic normality of the maximum empirical likelihood estimator of (AUC,J) and construct an asymptotically valid confidence region for (AUC,J). Furthermore, we propose a new test to determine whether a biomarker simultaneously exceeds prespecified target values of AUC0 and J0 with the null hypothesis H0:AUC≤AUC0 or J≤J0 against the alternative hypothesis Ha:AUC>AUC0 and J>J0. Simulation studies and a real data example on Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method and highlight its advantages over existing methods.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it