Deep learning surrogate model-based randomized maximum likelihood for large-scale reservoir automatic history matching
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Automatic history matching in large-scale reservoir simulations poses significant challenges due to the complexity and uncertainty inherent in reservoir parameters. In this paper, we introduced a deep learning-based surrogate model, termed Convolution Recurrent Neural Network, for addressing these challenges. The Convolution Recurrent Neural Network leverages Convolution Neural Network and Recurrent Neural Network to extract spatial and temporal features respectively to approximate the intricate map between reservoir parameters and production data. And then, through the Randomized Maximum Likelihood method, the posterior distribution of reservoir parameters is sampled by optimizing a series of perturbed objective functions. This method offers several advantages, including its ability to handle high-dimensional data, capture complex reservoir dynamics, and efficiently calibrate uncertain parameters. Through comprehensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world reservoir models, we demonstrate the efficacy of the approach in enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of automatic history matching in large-scale reservoir simulations. Document Type: Original article Cited as: Zhou, W., Fu, W., Liu, C., Zhang, K., Shen, J., Liu, P., Zhang, J., Zhang, L., Yan, X. Deep learning surrogate model-based randomized maximum likelihood for large-scale reservoir automatic history matching. Computational Energy Science, 2024, 1(1): 17-27. https://doi.org/10.46690/compes.2024.01.03 References: Aanonsen, S. I., Noevdal, G., Oliver, D. S., et al. The ensemble kalman filter in reservoir engineering-a review. SPE Journal, 2009, 14(3): 393-412. Asher, M. J., Croke, B. F., Jakeman, A. J., et al. A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling. Water Resources Research, 2015, 51(8): 5957-5973. Cancelliere, M., Verga, F., Viberti, D. 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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".