Cost-Effectiveness of Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screenings for Lung Cancer in High-Risk Populations: A Markov Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Domestic and foreign studies on lung cancer have been oriented to the medical efficacy of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT), but there is a lack of studies on the costs, value and cost-effectiveness of the treatment. There is a scarcity of conclusive evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of LDCT within the specific context of Taiwan. This study is designed to address this gap by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the cost-effectiveness of LDCT and chest X-ray (CXR) as screening methods for lung cancer. Methods: Markov decision model simulation was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of biennial screening with LDCT and CXR based on a health provider perspective. Inputs are based on probabilities, health status utility (quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)), costs of lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment from the literatures, and expert opinion. A total of 1,000 simulations and five cycles of Markov bootstrapping simulations were performed to compare the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of these two screening strategies. Probability and one-way sensitivity analyses were also performed. Results: The ICUR of early lung cancer screening compared LDCT to CXR is $-24,757.65/QALYs, and 100% of the probability agree to adopt it under a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of the Taiwan gross domestic product (GDP) per capita ($35,513). The one-way sensitivity analysis also showed that ICUR depends heavily on recall rate. Based on the prevalence rate of 39.7 lung cancer cases per 100,000 people in 2020, it could be estimated that LDCT screening for high-risk populations could save $17,154,115. Conclusion: LDCT can detect more early lung cancers, reduce mortality and is cost-saving than CXR in a long-term simulation of Taiwan's healthcare system. This study provides valuable insights for healthcare decision-makers and suggests analyzing cost-effectiveness for additional variables in future research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".