Increased Risk of Severe Cardiovascular Events Following Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Results of the EXACOS-CV Study in Japan
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are known to increase the risk of cardiovascular events. However, this association has not been investigated specifically in patients with COPD in Japan, whose characteristics may differ from those of Western patients (i.e., western Europe, the US, and Canada). METHODS: This longitudinal retrospective cohort study analyzed secondary claims data and included patients aged ≥ 40 years with COPD (International Classification of Diseases-10 codes J41-J44). All exacerbations occurring during follow-up were measured. Time-dependent Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between time periods following an exacerbation of COPD (vs. time prior to a first exacerbation) and occurrence of a first hospitalization for a severe fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event. RESULTS: The analysis included 152,712 patients with COPD with a mean age of 73.8 years and 37.6% of whom were female. During a median follow-up of 37 months, 63,182 (41.4%) patients experienced ≥ 1 exacerbation and 13,314 (8.7%) patients experienced ≥ 1 severe cardiovascular event. Following an exacerbation of COPD, the risk of a severe cardiovascular event was increased in the first 30 days [adjusted HR (aHR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.55] and remained elevated for 365 days post-exacerbation (aHR 1.13, 95% CI 1.04-1.23). Specifically, the risks of acute coronary syndrome or arrhythmias remained significantly increased for up to 180 days, and the risk of decompensated heart failure for 1 year. CONCLUSION: Among Japanese patients with COPD, the risk of experiencing a severe cardiovascular event increased following a COPD exacerbation and remained elevated for 365 days, emphasizing the need to prevent exacerbations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".