Evaluating Space Creation in the National Hockey League using Puck and Player Tracking Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Star ice hockey players are often described as having a magnetic pull, with the ability to draw out opponents and generate dangerous opportunities for their linemates in the space left vacant by defenders. Using spatiotemporal Puck and Player Tracking (PPT) data, we develop a quantitative approach to measure how players create space while in possession of the puck, termed On-Puck Space Generation (OPSG). The benefits of our model’s approach include its decomposition into three components: 1) Rink Control, the probability of controlling the puck at a given location; 2) Rink Value, the probability of scoring from a given location; and 3) Transition Probability, the probability that the next on-puck event will occur at a given location. Preliminary results of our metric show that players who achieve high levels of OPSG are more likely to lead their team in goals, assists and points. Our model can be used to analyze which players are in positions of danger, identify instances in which an individual created valuable space for their teammates, and understand which teams are best at generating space.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it