Understanding the impact of COVID-19 on antibiotic use in Canadian primary care: a matched-cohort study using EMR data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Inappropriate or overuse of antibiotic prescribing in primary care highlights an opportunity for antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) programs aimed at reducing unnecessary use of antimicrobials through education, policies and practice audits that optimize antibiotic prescribing. Evidence from the early part of the pandemic indicates a high rate of prescribing of antibiotics for patients with COVID-19. It is crucial to surveil antibiotic prescribing by primary care providers from the start of the pandemic and into its endemic stage to understand the effects of the pandemic and better target effective AMS programs. METHODS: This was a matched pair population-based cohort study that used electronic medical record (EMR) data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN). Participants included all patients that visited their primary care provider and met the inclusion criteria for COVID-19, respiratory tract infection (RTI), or non-respiratory or influenza-like-illness (negative). Four outcomes were evaluated (a) receipt of an antibiotic prescription; (b) receipt of a non-antibiotic prescription; (c) a subsequent primary care visit (for any reason); and (d) a subsequent primary care visit with a bacterial infection diagnosis. Conditional logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between COVID-19 and each of the four outcomes. Each model was adjusted for location (rural or urban), material and social deprivation, smoking status, alcohol use, obesity, pregnancy, HIV, cancer and number of chronic conditions. RESULTS: The odds of a COVID-19 patient receiving an antibiotic within 30 days of their visit is much lower than for patients visiting for RTI or for a non-respiratory or influenza-like-illnesses (AOR = 0.08, 95% CI[0.07, 0.09] compared to RTI, and AOR = 0.43, 95% CI[0.38, 0.48] compared to negatives). It was found that a patient visit for COVID-19 was much less likely to have a subsequent visit for a bacterial infection at all time points. CONCLUSIONS: Encouragingly, COVID-19 patients were much less likely to receive an antibiotic prescription than patients with an RTI. However, this highlights an opportunity to leverage the education and attitude change brought about by the public health messaging during the COVID-19 pandemic (that antibiotics cannot treat a viral infection), to reduce the prescribing of antibiotics for other viral RTIs and improve antibiotic stewardship.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".