Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Seasonal Sea Ice Extent of Hudson Strait, Canada, 1971–2018
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The temporal and spatial variation in seasonal sea ice in Hudson Strait is examined using time series and spatial clustering analyses. For the period from 1971 to 2018, a time series of sea ice breakup and freeze-up dates and ice-free season length at twenty-four grid points were generated from sea ice charts derived from satellite and other data. These data were analyzed temporally and spatially. The temporal analyses indicated an unambiguous response to a warming climate with statistically significant earlier breakup dates, later freeze-up dates, and longer ice-free seasons, that were statistically linked to coincident regional surface air temperatures. The rate of change in freeze-up dates and ice-free season length was particularly strong in the early 2000s and less so in the 2010s. There was evidence that breakup date behaviour was not only coincident with regional temperatures but likely with temperature and ice conditions of the previous year. Later freeze-up dates were directly linked to earlier breakup dates using detrended time series. Spatial clustering analysis on the Hudson Strait gridded sea ice data revealed distinctive signatures for Ungava Bay, Frobisher Bay, and for grid points close to the shore and a clear linkage to the underlying circulation of Hudson Strait.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it