Forecasting the impact of means restriction on the suicide mortality rate in the Region of the Americas: an ecological modeling study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The suicide mortality rate has been increasing in Region of the Americas, despite decreasing in all other World Health Organization (WHO) regions. Means restriction is an effective evidence-based intervention for suicide prevention. The objective of the current study was to estimate the impact of implementing national-level means restriction policies (i.e., firearm and pesticide restrictions) on the suicide mortality rate in the Region of the Americas. Methods: In this ecological modeling study, two counterfactual scenarios were investigated using sex-specific suicide mortality data from the WHO Global Health Estimates database for 2000 to 2019. Forecasted sex-specific age-standardized suicide mortality rates were then estimated for each country for 2020 to 2030. Counterfactual scenario 1 involved modeling the impact of a firearm or pesticide restriction implemented in 2020 for those countries where the respective means accounted for 40% or more of all suicides for at least one sex in 2019, while in counterfactual scenario 2 this threshold was reduced to 20% or more. Findings: It was estimated that if a firearm or pesticide restriction had been implemented in 2020 in those countries where the respective means accounted for 40% or more of all suicides for at least one sex in 2019, by 2030 the male and female suicide mortality rate in the Region of the Americas would be 20.5% (from 14.5 [95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 14.1, 15.0] per 100,000 males to 11.5 [95% CI: 11.1, 12.0] per 100,000 males) and 11.1% (from 4.5 [95% CI: 4.4, 4.7] per 100,000 females to 4.0 [95% CI: 3.9, 4.2] per 100,000 females) lower than the rate if no such restrictions were implemented, respectively. When the threshold was reduced to 20% or more, minimal additional gains in terms of number of suicides avoided and suicide mortality rate reduction would be achieved. Interpretation: The implementation of a firearm or pesticide restriction policy in countries where the respective means account for a large proportion of suicides (e.g., at least 40%) could aid the Region of the Americas in achieving the WHO target of a one third reduction in the suicide mortality rate by 2030. Funding: This work received no funding.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".