Lost in Transplantation: Characterizing Racial Gaps in Physician Organ Offer Acceptance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: There are known racial disparities in the organ transplant allocation system in the United States. However, prior work has yet to establish if transplant center decisions on offer acceptance-the final step in the allocation process-contribute to these disparities. Objective: To estimate racial differences in the acceptance of organ offers by transplant center physicians on behalf of their patients. Design: Retrospective cohort analysis using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) on patients who received an offer for a heart, liver, or lung transplant between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2020. Setting: Nationwide, waitlist-based. Patients: 32,268 heart transplant candidates, 102,823 liver candidates, and 25,780 lung candidates, all aged 18 or older. Measurements: 1) Association between offer acceptance and two race-based variables: candidate race and donor-candidate race match; 2) association between offer rejection and time to patient mortality. Results: Black race was associated with significantly lower odds of offer acceptance for livers (OR=0.93, CI: 0.88-0.98) and lungs (OR=0.80, CI: 0.73-0.87). Donor-candidate race match was associated with significantly higher odds of offer acceptance for hearts (OR=1.11, CI: 1.06-1.16), livers (OR=1.10, CI: 1.06-1.13), and lungs (OR=1.13, CI: 1.07-1.19). Rejecting an offer was associated with lower survival times for all three organs (heart hazard ratio=1.16, CI: 1.09-1.23; liver HR=1.74, CI: 1.66-1.82; lung HR=1.21, CI: 1.15-1.28). Limitations: Our study analyzed the observational SRTR dataset, which has known limitations. Conclusion: Offer acceptance decisions are associated with inequity in the organ allocation system. Our findings demonstrate the additional barriers that Black patients face in accessing organ transplants and demonstrate the need for standardized practice, continuous distribution policies, and better organ procurement.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".