A danish healthcare-focused economic evaluation of first-line cryoballoon ablation versus antiarrhythmic drug therapy for the treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that first-line cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation decreases atrial tachycardia in patients with symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) compared with antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs). The aim of this study was to develop a cost-effectiveness model (CEM) for first-line cryoablation compared with first-line AADs for the treatment of PAF. The model used a Danish healthcare perspective. METHODS: Individual patient-level data from the Cryo-FIRST, STOP AF and EARLY-AF RCTs were used to parameterise the CEM. The model structure consisted of a hybrid decision tree (one-year time horizon) and a Markov model (40-year time horizon, with a three-month cycle length). Health-related quality of life was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs and benefits were discounted at 3% per year. Model outcomes were produced using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: First-line cryoablation is dominant, meaning it results in lower costs (-€2,663) and more QALYs (0.18) when compared to first-line AADs. First-line cryoablation also has a 99.96% probability of being cost-effective, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of €23,200 per QALY gained. Regardless of initial treatment, patients were expected to receive ∼ 1.2 ablation procedures over a lifetime horizon. CONCLUSION: First-line cryoablation is both more effective and less costly (i.e. dominant), when compared with AADs for patients with symptomatic PAF in a Danish healthcare system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".