Cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices: Dynamic patterns and the role of climate transition risks
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The increasing concerns about climate change have led to a wide range of climate risks across capital markets. This paper uses ESG stock indices in six advanced economies to investigate the patterns of cross-country risk spillovers and then explores the determinants of the dynamic relationships across these indices. This paper also introduces three indexes of climate transition risks to investigate their dynamic relationship with the cross-country risk spillovers. The results show that ESG indices in European markets, such as Germany and France, are the main risk contributors, whereas the Japanese and Canadian markets are net risk receivers. We also find that the cross-country risk spillovers of ESG stock indices are sensitive to climate transition risk, with technology transition risk showing the strongest impact. Moreover, the cross-country risk spillovers are very sensitive to various types of global or major national climate actions and major extreme shocks to the financial markets.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it