A Water-Embedded CGE Approach to Economic and Welfare Effects of Agricultural Water Transfer
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Interbasin water transfer projects which are considered as a solution to the water crisis have different economic and environmental implications for regions. This study investigated the economic and welfare effects of agriculture water transfer to Qazvin Province in Iran using a water-embedded computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model was calibrated and solved numerically using a water-embededd social accounting matrix (WSAM). A scenario transferring 290 million m3 of water was simulated. The results indicate that this policy had a positive effect on the region’s welfare and increased the gross production of the agricultural sector by 14.4%, which led to an increase in the production inputs and added value of the agricultural sector. With the increase in gross production, the exports of the agricultural sector increased and the need for imports decreased. With the change of variables in the agricultural sector, other economic sectors were affected directly and indirectly. The economic variables of Qazvin province—gross domestic product (GDP), capital formation, exports of agricultural products, industries, and service efficiency—had a positive response to the policy.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it