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Record W4400833191 · doi:10.1002/joc.8571

Central American climate extreme trends: A statistical analysis of <scp>CLIMDEX</scp> indices

2024· article· en· W4400833191 on OpenAlexfundno aff
Marcela Alfaro‐Córdoba, Natali P. Mora‐Sandí, Hugo G. Hidalgo, Eric J. Alfaro

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Climatology · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicClimate variability and models
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersConsejo Nacional de RectoresUniversidad de Costa RicaConsejo Superior Universitario CentroamericanoInternational Development Research CentreUniversity of California
KeywordsPrecipitationClimatologyClimate extremesEnvironmental scienceExtreme value theoryTrend analysisClimate changeStatistical analysisMeteorologyGeographyStatisticsMathematicsGeology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Precipitation and temperature extremes from daily data indexed using the CLIMDEX methodology were calculated over the Central American region. The data comprises the coarsened versions of the Climate Hazards and Infrared Precipitation with stations (CHIRPs) and the corresponding data set for temperature (CHIRTs) from the year 1981 to 2020 and 1983 to 2016, respectively. The objective is to detect trend patterns in extremes in recent periods, use novel statistical techniques for assessing the trend significance and study the monthly and annual trends for each of the indices. Trends of extreme temperature indices show more consistent, robust and widespread significant results according with the observed warming of the region. Significant extreme precipitation indices trends are more localized, and therefore harder to analyse, but it seems that one robust result from several indices is the trend toward more intense extreme precipitation events in Costa Rica. The findings of this work suggest possible impacts in human and environmental systems across the region.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.032
Threshold uncertainty score0.065

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0030.005
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.021
GPT teacher head0.309
Teacher spread0.288 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations10
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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