Future Global River Ice in CMIP6 Models under Climate Change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract River ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°–2.5°C higher than in the near term. This leads to a 1.9–4.4-percentage-point decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8–15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the eastern Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions. Significance Statement River ice has a significant impact on various aspects, including hydrology, ecology, and the economy. The ongoing global warming phenomenon has resulted in a decline in river ice. This ice acts as a barrier, affecting river gas exchange and influencing the metabolism of the river, which is crucial for regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The primary objective of this research is to examine the response of river ice to future climate change. The outcomes of this study will play a role in estimating future GHG emissions and understanding river metabolism, as well as providing a valuable reference for tackling emerging challenges in resource acquisition in high-latitude and high-altitude regions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".