Simulations reveal variability in exposure to drier conditions during timing of budbreak for tree species of the mixedwood forests of Québec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Due to climate change, the timing of budbreak is occurring earlier in temperate and boreal tree species. Since the warmer conditions also cause snow to melt earlier in the spring, the hypothesis that bud reactivation of tree species of the mixedwood forests of Québec would occur under drier conditions in the future and that species from the temperate forests with late budbreak would be most exposed to dry conditions was tested. The thermal-time bud phenology model was used to predict the timing of budbreak for early and late species using 300 and 500 growing degree-days as the threshold for the timing of budbreak. Climate data was obtained from four CMIP6 climate models from 1950-2100 for two socioeconomic pathways at two locations, one in the temperate forest and one in the boreal mixedwood forest. Using linear regressions, the anomaly, which results from the difference between the historical mean (1950-1980) and the yearly values in timing of budbreak was predicted by the anomaly in drought index (SPEI) per site, climate model, socioeconomic pathways, and species with early or late budbreak timing. Budbreak is expected to occur earlier in the future, whereas the temporal trends in SPEI remained weak during April and May. When paired with the anomalies in both timing of budbreak and drought index, analyses showed that budbreak could be expected to occur under drier conditions in the future. However, due to differences between climate models, it remains uncertain whether drought stress will begin earlier in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".