Similarities and contrasts: Comparing U.S. and Canadian paths to net-zero
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Canada and the United States (US) have both committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050 but neither have implemented policy sufficient to reach this target. Knowledge of the technical steps to deep decarbonization is needed alongside an understanding of how each country might be similarly and uniquely impacted by a transition to net zero emissions, contingent on specific technology advancements or policy decisions. We use the computable general equilibrium model, gTech, to simulate sixteen net zero scenarios for Canada and the US varying by technology and policy assumptions as part of the energy modelling forum 37 (EMF37) study. We find that both economies similarly continue to grow in all scenarios out to 2050 with the rate of growth largely determined by assumptions on negative emissions technology. Sectoral impacts differ between countries as a result of current emissions and GDP profiles in combination with assumed net zero scenario policy and technology advancements. In the US, we find that efficient use of electricity is a slightly more important predictor of economic outcomes, while Canada's economy is marginally more responsive to cost and performance improvements in carbon capture technologies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it