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Upscaling hydrologic phenomena using machine learning

2024· preprint· en· W4401158759 on OpenAlexafffundabout
Hannah Burdett, James R. Craig

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicHydrology and Watershed Management Studies
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Waterloo
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
KeywordsSnowmeltSnowTerrainEnvironmental scienceRandom forestDrainage basinScale (ratio)Hydrological modellingSpatial variabilityMeteorologyHydrology (agriculture)ClimatologyComputer scienceMathematicsMachine learningStatisticsGeologyGeographyCartography

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Hydrologic processes in snowmelt dominated systems are traditionally measured and understood at the point scale. However, snowmelt, sublimation, and snowfall rates exhibit significant spatial variability across larger landscapes. These variations are influenced by local atmospheric and terrain characteristics, which control the deviations between small-scale measurements and areally averaged responses to spatially heterogeneous mass and energy inputs. Appropriate upscaling relations are needed to translate small-scale descriptions of snow processes into constitutive relationships that are applicable at larger scales. As a proof of concept, this study examines the temporal and spatial variability of sublimation and snowmelt fluxes in a drainage basin in the Canadian Rockies using machine learning methods. Raven, a hydrological model, generates high-resolution fluxes and state variables used to train a random forest algorithm. The random forest (RF) algorithm is then applied to estimate coarse resolution fluxes. This study involves estimating spatially averaged results from discretized fine-scaled models without explicit knowledge of detailed local response, both with and without low-order statistics of state (e.g., the standard deviation of snow water equivalent). A series of experiments are used to verify that the upscaling methodology can successfully represent the impact of heterogeneity within the system. Spatially averaged forcing estimated from the scale-appropriate machine learning model is then incorporated into a mass balance equation at a coarse resolution to demonstrate the efficacy of this upscaling methodology.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.030
Threshold uncertainty score0.059

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.247
Teacher spread0.223 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2024
Admission routes3
Has abstractyes

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