Prospects for Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Science with AXIS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Advanced X-ray Imaging Satellite (AXIS) promises revolutionary science in the X-ray and multi-messenger time domain. AXIS will leverage excellent spatial resolution (<1.5 arcsec), sensitivity (80× that of Swift), and a large collecting area (5–10× that of Chandra) across a 24-arcmin diameter field of view at soft X-ray energies (0.3–10.0 keV) to discover and characterize a wide range of X-ray transients from supernova-shock breakouts to tidal disruption events to highly variable supermassive black holes. The observatory’s ability to localize and monitor faint X-ray sources opens up new opportunities to hunt for counterparts to distant binary neutron star mergers, fast radio bursts, and exotic phenomena like fast X-ray transients. AXIS will offer a response time of <2 h to community alerts, enabling studies of gravitational wave sources, high-energy neutrino emitters, X-ray binaries, magnetars, and other targets of opportunity. This white paper highlights some of the discovery science that will be driven by AXIS in this burgeoning field of time domain and multi-messenger astrophysics. This White Paper is part of a series commissioned for the AXIS Probe Concept Mission; additional AXIS White Papers can be found at the AXIS website.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.019 | 0.007 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".