Capturing Exposure Disparities with Chemical Transport Models: Evaluating the Suitability of Downscaling Using Land Use Regression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
High resolution exposure surfaces are essential to capture disparities in exposure to traffic-related air pollution in urban areas. In this study, we develop an approach to downscale Chemical Transport Model (CTM) simulations to a hyperlocal level (∼100m) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) under three scenarios where emissions from cars, trucks and buses are zeroed out, thus capturing the burden of each transportation mode. This proposed approach statistically fuses CTMs with Land-Use Regression using machine learning techniques. With this proposed downscaling approach, changes in air pollutant concentrations under different scenarios are appropriately captured by downscaling factors that are trained to reflect the spatial distribution of emission reductions. Our validation analysis shows that high-resolution models resulted in better performance than coarse models when compared with observations at reference stations. We used this downscaling approach to assess disparities in exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) for populations composed of renters, low-income households, recent immigrants, and visible minorities. Individuals in all four categories were disproportionately exposed to the burden of cars, trucks, and buses. We conducted this analysis at spatial resolutions of 12, 4, 1 km, and 100 m and observed that disparities were significantly underestimated when using coarse spatial resolutions. This reinforces the need for high-spatial resolution exposure surfaces for environmental justice analyses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".