An empirical study on bug severity estimation using source code metrics and static analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the past couple of decades, significant research efforts have been devoted to the prediction of software bugs (i.e., defects). In general, these works leverage a diverse set of metrics, tools, and techniques to predict which classes, methods, lines, or commits are buggy. However, most existing work in this domain treats all bugs the same, which is not the case in practice. The more severe the bugs the higher their consequences. Therefore, it is important for a defect prediction method to estimate the severity of the identified bugs, so that the higher severity ones get immediate attention. In this paper, we provide a quantitative and qualitative study on two popular datasets (Defects4J and Bugs.jar), using 10 common source code metrics, and two popular static analysis tools (SpotBugs and Infer) for analyzing their capability to predict defects and their severity. We studied 3,358 buggy methods with different severity labels from 19 Java open-source projects. Results show that although code metrics are useful in predicting buggy code (Lines of the Code, Maintainable Index, FanOut, and Effort metrics are the best), they cannot estimate the severity level of the bugs. In addition, we observed that static analysis tools have weak performance in both predicting bugs (F1 score range of 3.1%–7.1%) and their severity label (F1 score under 2%). We also manually studied the characteristics of the severe bugs to identify possible reasons behind the weak performance of code metrics and static analysis tools in estimating their severity. Also, our categorization shows that Security bugs have high severity in most cases while Edge/Boundary faults have low severity. Finally, we discuss the practical implications of the results and propose new directions for future research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".