Climate bottlenecks off Newfoundland and Labrador for Atlantic cod in relation to eastern Canadian marine protected areas
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Climate change presents challenges for marine area-based conservation measures through altered habitat and associated species range shifts. We conducted statistical downscaling for the eastern Canadian coastal domain over a range of global climate models, focusing on habitat suitability for Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua), a numerically depressed, but ecologically, economically, and culturally important species in this region. We examined cod egg survival, juvenile growth, and spawning habitat suitability, combining these into one habitat index to compare within-closure habitat suitability for multiple life stages through time. Areas of high cod egg habitat suitability are projected to shift northward and increase across all area closures studied, while optimum juvenile habitat shifts north and eastward, increasing in almost all closures except the south. Spawning habitat as a function of temperature and oxygen will likely decrease through time across the entire region, but less in northern locations. Overall cod habitat is forecasted to decline in the south of the region while increasing at central and northern latitudes, highlighting the importance of existing and developing northern shelf area closures. While warming will bring temperatures closer to optimum levels for cod in this cold-water system, oxygen limitation will become more prevalent in the south of the region and should be monitored as an important ocean health indicator.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".