Nonlinear association between the triglyceride-glucose index and diabetes mellitus in overweight and obese individuals: a cross-sectional retrospective analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is linked to both the development and progression of diabetes, while obesity remains a significant risk factor for this disease. However, the relationship between the TyG index and overweight or obese diabetes remains unclear. This study was a cross-sectional analysis of data from 40,633 participants with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 24 kg/m2 who were screened from January 2018 to December 2023 at Henan Provincial People’s Hospital. Participants were divided into groups of overweight or obese individuals with diabetes and those without diabetes according to the diabetes diagnostic criteria. The TyG index, the dependent variable, was determined using the equation ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting glucose (mg/dL)/2]. We explored the association between TyG index and diabetes in overweight or obese individuals through multivariate logistic regression, subgroup analysis, generalized additive models, smoothed curve fitting, and analysis of threshold effects. Patients who were overweight or obese and had diabetes had higher TyG index levels than those without diabetes. After adjusting for confounders, our findings indicated a significant association between the TyG index and the risk of diabetes in overweight or obese individuals [odds ratio (OR) = 7.38, 95% confidence interval (CI): 6.98–7.81]. There was a J-shaped nonlinear association between TyG index and diabetes. When TyG index was > 4.46, the risk of diabetes increased sharply. Notably, a high baseline TyG index (Q4 group) correlated with a notably greater risk of diabetes than did the Q1 group, with an OR of 22.72 (95% CI: 20.52–25.16). Subgroup analysis revealed that the association between TyG and diabetes was stronger in females than in males (OR = 7.57, 95% CI: 6.76–8.48,), more significant in individuals with a BMI of 24–28 kg/m2 than in those with a BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2 (OR = 8.40, 95% CI: 7.83–9.02), and increased with age (OR = 8.15, 95% CI: 7.25–9.17) (all P for interaction < 0.001). Among overweight or obese individuals, a higher TyG index is associated with an elevated risk of diabetes, especially when TyG is > 4.46. Furthermore, factors such as sex, age, and BMI significantly influence the risk of diabetes in overweight or obese individuals. Specifically, older women with a BMI of 24–28 kg/m2 are at a greater risk of diabetes under similar TyG index conditions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".