Modeling platform to assess the effectiveness of single and integrated Ixodes scapularis tick control methods
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic. METHODS: We propose a platform to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve. RESULTS: Simulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes-deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications. CONCLUSIONS: Computer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".